TrueCar Releases Analysis of May Industry Sales

Increased affordability expected for used car prices in the month of May

SANTA MONICA, Calif, May 25, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,221,790 units in May 2022, down 17% from a year ago and up 10% from April 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 14 million, down 17% from May 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,062,452 units, down 18% from a year ago and up 7% from April 2022.

“This month we’re continuing to see a struggle for supply among the industry however we’re also now starting to see signs of demand adjusting. Higher interest rates combined with higher fuel prices present a headwind to demand cooling off, which may explain why average used list prices are decreasing, down 1.6% in May versus April 2022,” said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. “In terms of price adjustments, compared to the beginning of the month we are seeing more vehicles being marked down than for the same period last year. This is truer for used where we are seeing over half of our used listings getting a downward price adjustment since the beginning of the month. This trend is led by the used full-size vehicle segment.”

TrueCar Releases Analysis of May Industry Sales WeeklyReviewer

“This month we’re not expecting fleet inventory to be down as much as retail, partly due to deferred fleet demand and the domestic OEM brands generally being in a better inventory situation than imported brands,” said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.

Additional Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

  • Total sales for May 2022 are expected to be down 17% from a year ago and up 10% from April 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for May 2022 are expected to be down 6% from a year ago and up 34% from April 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Incentive spend is down 59% from last year.
  • Average transaction price is projected to be up 14% from a year ago and comparable to April 2022.
  • Total SAAR is expected to be down 17% from a year ago at 14 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for May 2022 are expected to reach 3.1 million, down 19% from a year ago and down 8% from April 2022.
  • The average interest rate on new vehicles is 5.1% compared to April 2022 at 4.8% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8%.
  • The average loan term on a new vehicle for May 2022 is about 71 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is also about 71 months.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer

May 2022 Forecast

May 2021 Actual

Apr 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

29,590

39,204

28,678

-24.5%

-18.2%

3.2%

16.1%

Daimler

32,497

29,145

31,065

11.5%

20.8%

4.6%

17.7%

Ford

171,910

160,520

175,942

7.1%

16.0%

-2.3%

9.9%

GM

196,463

240,095

200,972

-18.2%

-11.4%

-2.2%

10.0%

Honda

84,399

176,815

93,250

-52.3%

-48.3%

-9.5%

1.8%

Hyundai

63,145

93,745

66,707

-32.6%

-27.0%

-5.3%

6.5%

Kia

54,806

80,298

59,063

-31.7%

-26.1%

-7.2%

4.4%

Nissan

64,910

110,374

74,668

-41.2%

-36.3%

-13.1%

-2.2%

Stellantis

139,300

182,966

143,078

-23.9%

-17.5%

-2.6%

9.5%

Subaru

47,475

56,558

45,748

-16.1%

-9.1%

3.8%

16.7%

Tesla

47,852

28,790

48,432

66.2%

80.1%

-1.2%

11.2%

Toyota

188,637

241,003

186,510

-21.7%

-15.2%

1.1%

13.8%

Volkswagen Group

51,907

72,527

45,949

-28.4%

-22.5%

13.0%

27.1%

Industry

1,221,790

1,586,748

1,254,597

-23.0%

-16.6%

-2.6%

9.6%

 

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer

May 2022 Forecast

May 2021 Actual

Apr 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

29,025

37,474

28,168

-22.5%

-16.1%

3.0%

15.9%

Daimler

31,451

27,938

30,430

12.6%

22.0%

3.4%

16.3%

Ford

127,065

124,561

143,183

2.0%

10.5%

-11.3%

-0.2%

GM

156,341

208,133

174,521

-24.9%

-18.6%

-10.4%

0.8%

Honda

83,371

170,217

92,860

-51.0%

-46.9%

-10.2%

1.0%

Hyundai

63,040

86,835

66,001

-27.4%

-21.4%

-4.5%

7.5%

Kia

50,714

72,881

56,866

-30.4%

-24.6%

-10.8%

0.3%

Nissan

53,846

87,667

61,645

-38.6%

-33.5%

-12.7%

-1.7%

Stellantis

111,246

162,041

118,354

-31.3%

-25.6%

-6.0%

5.7%

Subaru

46,221

55,170

44,042

-16.2%

-9.2%

4.9%

18.1%

Tesla

47,312

28,790

48,415

64.3%

78.0%

-2.3%

9.9%

Toyota

170,085

204,785

164,585

-16.9%

-10.0%

3.3%

16.3%

Volkswagen Group

51,118

67,738

45,293

-24.5%

-18.2%

12.9%

27.0%

Industry

1,062,452

1,402,283

1,120,603

-24.2%

-17.9%

-5.2%

6.7%

 

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer

May 2022 Forecast

May 2021 Actual

Apr 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

565

1,730

510

-67.3%

-64.6%

10.7%

24.6%

Daimler

1,046

1,207

635

-13.3%

-6.1%

64.6%

85.2%

Ford

44,845

35,959

32,759

24.7%

35.1%

36.9%

54.0%

GM

40,122

31,962

26,451

25.5%

36.0%

51.7%

70.6%

Honda

1,028

6,598

390

-84.4%

-83.1%

163.6%

196.5%

Hyundai

105

6,910

706

-98.5%

-98.4%

-85.1%

-83.3%

Kia

4,092

7,417

2,197

-44.8%

-40.2%

86.2%

109.5%

Nissan

11,064

22,707

13,023

-51.3%

-47.2%

-15.0%

-4.4%

Stellantis

28,054

20,925

24,724

34.1%

45.2%

13.5%

27.7%

Subaru

1,254

1,388

1,706

-9.6%

-2.1%

-26.5%

-17.3%

Tesla

540

17

3170.3%

3579.1%

Toyota

18,552

36,218

21,925

-48.8%

-44.5%

-15.4%

-4.8%

Volkswagen Group

789

4,789

656

-83.5%

-82.2%

20.2%

35.2%

Industry

159,338

184,465

133,994

-13.6%

-6.4%

18.9%

33.8%

 

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer

May 2022 Forecast

May 2021 Actual

Apr 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

MoM % Change

BMW

1.9%

4.4%

1.8%

-56.7%

7.3%

Daimler

3.2%

4.1%

2.0%

-22.3%

57.4%

Ford

26.1%

22.4%

18.6%

16.4%

40.1%

GM

20.4%

13.3%

13.2%

53.4%

55.2%

Honda

1.2%

3.7%

0.4%

-67.4%

191.2%

Hyundai

0.2%

7.4%

1.1%

-97.7%

-84.3%

Kia

7.5%

9.2%

3.7%

-19.2%

100.7%

Nissan

17.0%

20.6%

17.4%

-17.1%

-2.3%

Stellantis

20.1%

11.4%

17.3%

76.1%

16.5%

Subaru

2.6%

2.5%

3.7%

7.6%

-29.1%

Tesla

1.1%

0.0%

0.0%

3209.9%

Toyota

9.8%

15.0%

11.8%

-34.6%

-16.3%

Volkswagen Group

1.5%

6.6%

1.4%

-77.0%

6.4%

Industry

13.0%

11.6%

10.7%

12.2%

22.1%

 

Total Market Share

Manufacturer

May 2022 Forecast

May 2021 Actual

Apr 2022 Actual

BMW

2.4%

2.5%

2.3%

Daimler

2.7%

1.8%

2.5%

Ford

14.1%

10.1%

14.0%

GM

16.1%

15.1%

16.0%

Honda

6.9%

11.1%

7.4%

Hyundai

5.2%

5.9%

5.3%

Kia

4.5%

5.1%

4.7%

Nissan

5.3%

7.0%

6.0%

Stellantis

11.4%

11.5%

11.4%

Subaru

3.9%

3.6%

3.6%

Tesla

3.9%

1.8%

3.9%

Toyota

15.4%

15.2%

14.9%

Volkswagen Group

4.2%

4.6%

3.7%

96.0%

95.3%

95.7%

 

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer

May 2022 Forecast

May 2021 Actual

Apr 2022 Actual

BMW

2.7%

2.7%

2.5%

Daimler

3.0%

2.0%

2.7%

Ford

12.0%

8.9%

12.8%

GM

14.7%

14.8%

15.6%

Honda

7.8%

12.1%

8.3%

Hyundai

5.9%

6.2%

5.9%

Kia

4.8%

5.2%

5.1%

Nissan

5.1%

6.3%

5.5%

Stellantis

10.5%

11.6%

10.6%

Subaru

4.4%

3.9%

3.9%

Tesla

4.5%

2.1%

4.3%

Toyota

16.0%

14.6%

14.7%

Volkswagen Group

4.8%

4.8%

4.0%

96.1%

95.1%

95.9%

 

ATP

Manufacturer

May 2022 Forecast

May 2021 Actual

Apr 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$67,092

$60,621

$68,146

10.7%

-1.5%

Daimler

$65,924

$61,985

$68,337

6.4%

-3.5%

Ford

$51,037

$43,388

$49,070

17.6%

4.0%

GM

$50,566

$46,352

$50,420

9.1%

0.3%

Honda

$37,352

$32,145

$36,550

16.2%

2.2%

Hyundai

$36,958

$31,800

$37,190

16.2%

-0.6%

Kia

$35,091

$30,179

$34,719

16.3%

1.1%

Nissan

$36,156

$31,031

$35,810

16.5%

1.0%

Stellantis

$53,370

$46,593

$53,466

14.5%

-0.2%

Subaru

$35,583

$32,307

$34,908

10.1%

1.9%

Toyota

$39,073

$36,641

$39,957

6.6%

-2.2%

Volkswagen Group

$46,455

$43,928

$47,011

5.8%

-1.2%

Industry

$44,254

$38,694

$44,043

14.4%

0.5%

$5,560

$211

 

Incentives

Manufacturer

May 2022 Forecast

May 2021 Actual

Apr 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$1,117

$4,814

$1,309

-76.8%

-14.6%

Daimler

$1,452

$3,650

$1,354

-60.2%

7.2%

Ford

$1,435

$2,352

$1,458

-39.0%

-1.6%

GM

$1,677

$4,535

$1,926

-63.0%

-12.9%

Honda

$905

$2,133

$960

-57.6%

-5.7%

Hyundai

$704

$2,019

$775

-65.1%

-9.2%

Kia

$619

$2,483

$669

-75.1%

-7.5%

Nissan

$1,381

$3,698

$1,595

-62.7%

-13.5%

Stellantis

$1,892

$3,892

$1,925

-51.4%

-1.7%

Subaru

$737

$1,299

$719

-43.2%

2.5%

Toyota

$818

$2,246

$844

-63.6%

-3.0%

Volkswagen Group

$1,155

$3,846

$1,252

-70.0%

-7.8%

Industry

$1,251

$3,055

$1,327

-59.1%

-5.8%

-$1,804

-$77

 

Incentives as % of ATP

Manufacturer

May 2022 Forecast

May 2021 Actual

Apr 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

1.7%

7.9%

1.9%

-79.0%

-13.3%

Daimler

2.2%

5.9%

2.0%

-62.6%

11.2%

Ford

2.8%

5.4%

3.0%

-48.1%

-5.4%

GM

3.3%

9.8%

3.8%

-66.1%

-13.2%

Honda

2.4%

6.6%

2.6%

-63.5%

-7.7%

Hyundai

1.9%

6.3%

2.1%

-70.0%

-8.6%

Kia

1.8%

8.2%

1.9%

-78.6%

-8.5%

Nissan

3.8%

11.9%

4.5%

-68.0%

-14.3%

Stellantis

3.5%

8.4%

3.6%

-57.5%

-1.5%

Subaru

2.1%

4.0%

2.1%

-48.5%

0.6%

Toyota

2.1%

6.1%

2.1%

-65.8%

-0.8%

Volkswagen Group

2.5%

8.8%

2.7%

-71.6%

-6.6%

Industry

2.8%

7.9%

3.0%

-64.2%

-6.2%

 

Revenue

Manufacturer

May 2022 Forecast

May 2021 Actual

Apr 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

Industry

$54,068,972,589

$61,398,057,586

$55,256,423,309

-11.9%

-2.1%

 

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.’s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry’s most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar’s marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter

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SOURCE TrueCar.com

TrueCar Releases Analysis of May Industry Sales WeeklyReviewer

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