DESANTIS WOULD BEAT TRUMP IN A PRIMARY HEAD-TOHEAD THAT INCLUDES GOP-LEANING INDEPENDENTS
TWO-THIRDS OF AMERICANS WANT STRICTER IMMIGRATION CONTROLS WHEN TOLD THE EXTENT OF BORDER CROSSINGS
NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Dec. 16, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the December Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
Joe Biden’s approval rating remains steady at 42% as two-thirds of Americans think inflation is still increasing. Ron DeSantis continues his ascent as the poll shows him defeating Biden in a 2024 matchup for the first time.
Strong majorities of voters think Twitter shadowbanned users and engaged in political censorship during the 2020 election. Seventy percent also want new national laws protecting users from corporate censorship. Download key results from the poll, which includes more on free speech, immigration, and inflation, here.
"Americans continue to show they are looking for new leaders. Ron DeSantis strengthens his grip as the Republican alternative to Donald Trump, and Elon Musk is in some ways the new Trump as the outsider taking on the establishment," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "Americans also want more information: they are buying the Musk argument that there is an information chokehold in this country, whether by Big Tech, government, or mainstream media."
AMERICANS THINK INFLATION IS INCREASING AND WILL LINGER
- 66% of voters think inflation is increasing, and 61% of voters think inflation will continue for at least another year.
- But Americans see economic troubles easing slightly: the percentage of voters who think the economy is heading in the right track and who are optimistic about their lives next year both increased by 3 points.
- Voters are split on whether Biden’s policies caused inflation.
IT’S NOW A TWO-WAY GOP RACE BETWEEN TRUMP AND DESANTIS
- Trump is still the GOP frontrunner in an open field: 48% of GOP voters would choose him in a primary, compared to 25% for DeSantis.
- But in a GOP head-to-head, DeSantis defeats Trump by 4 points if GOP-leaning Independent voters are included; Trump wins the head-to-head by 10 points among only GOP voters.
- For the first time, the poll shows DeSantis defeating Biden in a 2024 matchup, by 4 points; Trump would also defeat Biden by 5 points.
VOTERS BELIEVE TWITTER ENGAGED IN POLITICAL CENSORSHIP AND ARE ROOTING FOR ELON MUSK
- Americans believe in the Twitter Files revelations: 64% think Twitter was secretly shadow banning users, and 64% also think Twitter engaged in political censorship during the 2020 election.
- Americans like Elon Musk: 61% think Musk is trying to clean up Twitter from abuses, and his personal favorability is 8 points above water.
- The Hunter Biden laptop story continues to generate controversy: 61% of voters think Twitter’s decision to ban tweets about the laptop was based on political bias; but 42%, including a majority of Democrats, believe the laptop is Russian disinformation.
- 70% of voters, including strong majorities across the political spectrum, support new national laws protecting internet users from corporate censorship.
AMERICANS THINK ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION IS A SERIOUS ISSUE BUT DON’T KNOW THE NUMBERS
- Voters are concerned about the effects of Biden’s immigration policies: 67% think they have encouraged illegal immigration, and 57% think they are increasing the flow of drugs and crime.
- Americans are unfamiliar with the extent of illegal immigration: 64% correctly said the number of illegal border crossings has increased under Biden, but the median voter underestimated that number by a factor of 10 (250-500 thousand vs. 2-3 million).
- Two-thirds of Americans want Biden to issue stricter policies to reduce the flow of illegal immigrants, when told the actual number of illegal crossings in the last year (over 2.75 million).
The December Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll survey was conducted online within the United States from December 14-15, 2022, among 1,851 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
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